From a fundamental point of view, different from other types of commodities such as basic metals, agricultural products, and soft commodities, gold is a precious metal with a relatively high value-preserving price and financial value, especially when markeTroy Precious Metals Trading Companyt turbulence, exchange rate fluctuations, and lack of funds are suitable for investment speculation. Under the background, the special function of gold still determines its strong position.
Earlier this week, the economic data released by Europe and the United States did not perform well and the unemployment rate showed signs of rising again (especially the youth unemployment rate continued to rise), and the German-French summit that the market focused on failed to achieve substantive results, deepening the market. Disappointed. As a result of rising social instability factors, a strong atmosphere for hedging in the market, the concept of cash being king has resurfaced, pushing up the price of gold.
The European Central Bank, which had previously issued a food shortage threat to Cyprus, insisted on Tuesday that the Cyprus rescue plan was only a special case. It tried to suppress the rescue plan reached by Cyprus and the European Union after the radical remarks made by Eurogroup Chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem. Market speculation on the future bailout template for the euro zone banking industry.
Due to the ongoing fighting between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian armed forces in the eastern region and the Russian military's use of combat aircraft to enter Ukrainian airspace, risk aversion pushed the precious metals to continue to rise on the previous trading day. Among them, London Gold opened from 1300.09 US dollars, the highest is 1315.41 US dollars, the lowest is 1299.24 US dollars. As of the end of the U.S. market, it rose $10.51 to $1310.01, or 0.81%. Spot silver rose by 0.11 US dollars, or 0.56%, to close at 19.59 US dollars.
The international gold price continued to decline overnight. Yesterday, the domestic Shanghai gold price remained volatile, and the entire line closed down. Among them, the main 1112 contract opened at 319.99 yuan per gram, closed at 319.00 yuan per gram, and returned to below 320 yuan per gram, a decrease of 0.44%.
With the landing of QE3 boots, the hype atmosphere gradually faded. Silver appeared to lighten its position. The previous strong upward channel turned into an adjustment channel after just a few days of oscillation. At present, it has retraced the previous 50% gain, and the voice of silver on this change is endless. The author believes that the energy of QE3 is far more than that, and the chain reaction of the release of liquidity in various countries in the later period will promote a new round of rising prices for silver. Alleviation of the European debt problem The first European Stability Mechanism Council meeting was held on October 8, which marked the full launch of the Eurozone's permanent rescue fund ESM, and built a line of defense to stop the European debt crisis from spreading. Fitch assigned the European Stability Mechanism ESM long-term issuer AAA rating, short-term IDR is F1+, and the rating outlook is stable. Although the rating agencies are still lowering the ratings of Eurozone countries such as Spain and Italy, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund [Weibo] have prepared for the rescue. All countries with debt problems must apply for the rescue and reach the EU and international IMF rescue request. Lagarde [Weibo] once stated that she tends to give Greece and Spain, which are heavily indebted, more time to reduce their budget deficits, because excessive deficit reduction efforts do more harm than good. It can be seen from this that the European debt problem is developing in a positive direction, and it is unlikely that it will deteriorate again in the near future. The world continues to release liquidity. The Federal Reserve announced on September 13 that it will maintain the federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, and it will purchase $40 billion in mortgage-backed bonds every month, and will extend the ultra-low interest rate period to mid-2015. The existing distortions Operation (OT) etc. remain unchanged. The Fed's unlimited and unlimited purchase of bonds will continue to release liquidity to the market before the US economy improves and the unemployment rate improves. On October 30, the Central Bank of India announced that it would maintain the benchmark interest rate at 8.00%, but lower the deposit reserve ratio by 25 basis points. On the same day, after the interest rate meeting, the Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain the target interest rate range unchanged at 0-0.1% and expand the scale of its asset purchase and loan program by 11 trillion yen to 91 trillion yen. From a domestic point of view, although the central bank has not implemented policies with a wide range of market influences such as RRR and interest rate cuts, it has recently continued to release liquidity through open market operations. On October 30, it carried out 7-day and 28-day reverse repurchase operations, and the transaction volume They are 290 billion yuan and 105 billion yuan respectively, and the amount of funds released in a single day is equivalent to the reduction in the one-time deposit rate. However, as the maturity of reverse repurchase on Tuesday is 49 billion yuan, it is equivalent to the central bank's net investment of 346 billion yuan. Judging from the current global inflationary pressures, the US Department of Labor announced that the Consumer PriceTroy Precious Metals Trading Company Index CPI in September increased by 0.6% from the previous month. The overall level of consumer prices rose by 1.9% year-on-year, and the producer prices of industrial producers fell by 3.6% year-on-year, a 35-month low. This provides a basis for the central bank to further release liquidity. In addition, as of October 31, the Barclays Silver ETF fund held a position of 9,923.19 tons, maintaining a fluctuation of about 10,000 tons, which has increased unabated from before QE3. The bullish trend has not changed. The Eurozone group warming temporarily alleviated the possibility of systemic risks caused by the European debt problem. The release of liquidity is still the main tone of the monetary policies of various countries in the later period, and the inflation caused by loose funds will be the main driving force for the rise of silver in the later period. From the graphic point of view, the silver retracement of 50%, currently in the 3150-3250 cents oscillation area, does not rule out the possibility of falling to 3050 cents, an important long-term defense line, but does not affect the long-term long-term trend pattern. Operationally, Meibai Silver broke through 3250 cents to follow up long orders. If it falls, we will build long positions with a final stop loss of 3050 cents.
On that day, the price of silver futures for December delivery rose 96.9 cents to close at $32.411 per ounce, an increase of 3.08%. The platinum futures price for October delivery rose by 30.2 US dollars to close at 1567.5 US dollars per ounce, an increase of 1.96%.
A1: As there are many factors affecting international gold prices in 2015, my overall judgment on gold prices is still to look for opportunities for rebound in a weak market. This year's Fed's interest rate hike process, the strength of the US dollar and the weakness of commodities will continue to put pressure on gold prices. However, it is worth noting that there are also considerable uncertainties in the international market. Geopolitics and the instability of international monetary policy are expected to repeatedly stimulate demand for hedging and support the rebound in gold prices. Therefore, in the context of the intertwining of long and short factors in the international gold market in 2015, the international gold price may once again show a trend of range fluctuations. It is expected that the fluctuation range of gold prices will be between US$1,050 and US$1,400 per ounce.