Since last week, the market's safe-haven demand foHow to apply anti-fragility in the precious metals marketr gold has significantly weakened. On the one hand, the European and American stock markets and crude oil and other bulk commodity markets have stabilized and rebounded significantly, attracting the continued return of funds withdrawn to safe-haven assets in the early stage, and relatively reducing the attractiveness of gold and the market sentiment that promotes gold prices; on the other hand, gold ETFs The obvious reduction in holdings also shows that the market has passed the early stage of emotional tension. The world's largest gold ETF SPDR fund's gold holdings dropped by nearly 60 tons, a decrease of 4.65%, and the gold holdings fell to around 1,230 tons, which was the lowest in a month.
9. Data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the US rose slightly last week and exceeded expectations. Data show that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States rose by 4 million to 371,000 in the week of January 5, which is expected to be 365,000.
However, even if the pace of recovery in industrial countries accelerates, there are still uncertainties in their economies. If investors are worried about the US and European economies again, they may reinvest in gold. And geopolitical risks and rising inflation will also cause gold prices to rise. In addition, India, the mainland, Russia, as well as the Philippines, Thailand and other countries are all actively buying gold, which has also stimulated gold prices. Although the price of gold has been rising for 10 years, its upward trend may continue in the long run.
The international gold price was moderated in early trading on Thursday (November 29). The selling order triggered by the expiration of Comex gold's December option caused the gold price to plummet overnight and approached the 1,700 level. Fortunately, some officials' optimistic comments about the fiscal cliff improved market sentiment, and gold prices subsequently rebounded moderately to around 1720.
A2: The price fluctuation of international silver mainly reflects the changes in the two attributes of precious metals and industrial metals behind it. The properties of precious metals are mainly manifested in that it is highly consistent with the trend of gold prices. But unlike gold, the market's expected changes in the supply and demand of silver industry can easily increase the volatility of silver prices, causing silver prices to rise and fall sharply.
The second rising stage was from the second half of 2005 to May 2006, when the price of goHow to apply anti-fragility in the precious metals marketld rose from around US$410/oz to around US$730/oz. This rising process time is relatively short, but the rise is sharp. There are two main stimulus factors. One is the continued macro depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the mild global inflation environment, which promotes the financial attributes of gold prices to hedge against the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and hedge against inflation risks. The second is the demand for hedging caused by the tense geopolitics at that time. .
Japan and other G7 countries announced that they will make concerted efforts to stabilize currency markets. The Bank of Japan also stated that it will continue to adopt a strong loose monetary policy and will continue to provide sufficient liquidity to ensure the stability of the financial market. Given the close relationship between gold and global liquidity, these developments will only provide support for gold prices.
Since the end of January, international and domestic gold futures have fluctuated higher, driven by market risk aversion and inflation concerns. The main April contract of New York gold hit a record high of $1444.5 on March 7, and the main Shanghai gold contract 1106 also rebounded again. Above 300 yuan. In the short term, it will take time for the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa to calm down, and inflationary concerns caused by the rise in the prices of crude oil and other commodities will continue. With this support, Shanghai gold will easily rise but never fall.
From a technical analysis, Wu Chengjie pointed out that from the perspective of the wave shape, this adjustment is more likely to be a correction wave in an upward process, so the midline bulls can still continue to hold positions for observation. However, due to the magnitude of this adjustment, the market outlook may still go up in a volatile form, that is, there is still the possibility of a fall after a rebound. The focus will be on the extent of the fall. If you continue to gain support above 1490 US dollars/ounce and go up, it is a strong adjustment, and it is expected to test the previous head of 1560 US dollars/ounce again. Of course, if the market outlook falls below $1,450 per ounce, there is a possibility that this round of super long wave will come to an end.