From the perspective of the valuation level of the non-ferrous metals industry relative to all A-shares, the current PB of the non-ferrous metals industry is 36% higher than the A-share market, which is higher than the average level of 1.12 times in the past 12 years. Although the non-ferrous metal industry is a high-beta industry, the average level is less restrictive, but the current relative valuation level is also close to the second peak set in the last bull market, and the upside is tested. Therefore, combining Orient Securities' judgment on supply and demand fundamentals and profitability forecasts, it is believed that the current industry valuation level has excessively reflected the industry recovery, and further evidence of consumption recovery is needed to support the current stoPrecious metalsck price.
Judging from some events this week, on Tuesday, the British fiscal situation and sovereign debt outlook received negative comments from Moody's, which led to a sharp drop in the pound. At the same time, the Australian dollar was also affected by the negative impact of the World Bank’s slowdown in global economic growth. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia's ambiguity about the prospect of interest rate hikes exacerbated the decline of the Australian dollar, which has put pressure on gold prices. In addition, some ETF funds also underwent a small amount of holdings on Wednesday, which put another part of pressure on the gold price. Although OPEC did not reach an agreement on increasing crude oil production to make commodities rebound, it also stimulated a rebound in gold prices.
Technical analysts MaryAnne and PamelaAden said on Tuesday (October 29) that the recent gradual rebound in gold prices was largely due to the solid demand for physical gold, but more importantly because of the unusually weak performance of the dollar during this period. At the same time, most people expect the Fed to postpone the timetable for QE reduction in 2014, so we believe that gold prices will continue to rise in the future. In addition, I have to mention that every time the debt ceiling is raised in history, the price of gold has always risen, and recent events are no exception.
After surviving a wave of holdings reduction in early May, gold has recently regained its momentum. Since last Friday, the international gold price has risen for three consecutive trading days, reaching a two-week high. According to industry insiders, the intensified debt crisis in Europe has led to increased risk aversion in the market, and the emergence of safe-haven buying has boosted the price of gold.
Just two months ago, the price of gold hit US$1,900 per ounce twice, but returned to its original point after the madness. On September 26, it fell by nearly 6%, and the gold price hit near US$1,530 in intraday trading. Is the crazy gold price really going to die, or is it just a flop? Aside from the clouds and fog, we can't help asking, what exactly should an ounce of gold be priced?
Recently, the international spot gold price surpassed 1,500 US dollars per ounce in one fell swoop. While gold investors were delighted, they also began to worry about possible adjustment risks for gold prices in the short term. Financial experts reminded thPrecious metalsat many factors in the field of international politics and economics will support the long-term rise of gold prices, and investment in gold requires a long-term perspective.
David Bruno said that similar to the 2008 financial crisis, once the US government defaults on debt or loses its 3A sovereign rating, it will cause a chain reaction, and fund managers are completely powerless to avoid risks by adjusting the asset structure. .
However, even under pressure from the White House, the Fed will slow down the pace of rate hikes, and the dollar may not necessarily weaken immediately. Because from the year-to-date performance of global risk assets, the uncertainty has been increasing. In the United States itself, the fiscal and tax reforms and expansion plans advocated by Trump will also maintain a strong dollar.